To measure something is to begin to manage it, and it’s a principle that has dominated much of Kevin Hennessy’s career.
The climate change researcher has been involved with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for more than 25 years, including as Lead Author of the Australasian chapter of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
In November, Hennessy will be discussing the findings of this report – and how they must be used to inform the work of engineers – at the upcoming Climate Smart Engineering Conference.
He said it was clear climate change has already caused widespread impacts to ecosystems and people.
“[But] vulnerability differs substantially among and within regions, driven by patterns of socio-economic development, unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization and governance,” Hennessy said.
“Progress on adaptation is uneven and there are increasing gaps between action taken and what is needed to deal with the increasing risks.”
Hennessy called on engineers to drive accelerated and equitable action to both reduce net emissions and adapt to climate change.
Hennessy said Earth’s surface temperature had already risen by 1.1°C on average, with greatest increases over land and near the poles.
“Many weather and climate extremes are being affected, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts and tropical cyclones,” he said.
“Further increases are expected for sea level, extremely high temperatures, marine heatwaves, heavy rainfall and droughts, with reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost.
“Rainfall is expected to increase over high latitudes and much of the tropics, but decrease over the sub-tropics including southern Australia.”
Hennessy said without a strengthening of policies implemented by the end of 2020, average temperatures are expected to rise by 1.5°C by 2030 and up to 2.4°C by 2050. By 2100, at which point most of the children being born today could expect to still be living, that figure could be 3.2°C.
“Reducing emissions across the energy sector requires major transitions, including low-emission energy sources such as renewables, switching to biofuels and hydrogen, improved energy efficiency and demand management,” Hennessy said.
“Reducing industry emissions requires coordinated action throughout value chains, including energy and materials efficiency, circular material flows and major changes in production processes.”
Mitigation measures
Hennessy said while many cities and regions have developed plans, few have been implemented at anything close to the required scale, with most financial investment directed at large-scale engineering projects after climate events have caused harm.
Hennessy said adaptation and mitigation would require an incredibly broad array of tools and technologies.
“Changes to the design and built form of cities can contribute to reduction of the urban heat island effect and the impacts of heatwaves,” he said.
“Architectural and urban design regulations, such as building codes and guidelines, facilitate climate-resilient buildings. Passive cooling includes solar shading, window orientation, increased insulation, high-albedo materials and greater natural ventilation.
“Urban parks, open spaces, forests, wetlands, green roofs and engineered stormwater treatment help manage stormwater and wastewater, [while] coastal engineering measures include sea-walls, groynes, breakwaters and tidal barriers.”
Creating resilient road and rail networks would also be crucial to mitigating harms – including rerouting and rethinking land-use planning. Resilient ICT and energy infrastructure, Hennessy said, would also contribute to the robustness and stability of communities during disasters.
Hennessy will deliver the opening session at the Climate Smart Engineering Conference, from November 22-23. See the latest speakers who have been added to the program here.
Great article with interesting mitigation and adaptation actions.
I am wonder if population control has been analysed as another climate change adaptation/mitigation effort. Although renewable energies are expected to replace an important proportion of fossil fuels by 2100, we need to thoroughly look at future energy, food, and land use demand due to demographic growth. Assuming the current population increase (1% per year), there will be around 9 billion additional inhabitants on earth by 2100. This means we will need to satisfy twice as much as the current human needs.
The “unavoidable facts” demand more rigorous examination, having apparently grown from a passing remark at a 1985 WEC conference in Austria to a gospel fact at the 1988 Toronto conference and perpetuated by IPCC in their Assessment Report of 1995.
An essential component of management would be to establish beyond reasonable doubt the meaning of the measurements. Despite many requests, no climate scientist has proved a nexus between emissions and climate change, nor has revealed what other drivers of temperature rise have been considered in their forecasts. This includes IPCC in Geneva.
It will be interesting to see when the first threats of a class action arise for financial losses caused by coercion of companies by insurers to support ineffective projects, while withholding investment in others which would have alleviated the energy crisis.
I agree with Derek Ferns comments.
Energy efficiency, resource efficiency, and sustainability are core to a professional engineer’s charter.
In my experience, achieving proven measurable results in the pursuit of sustainability is a much better motivator, than alarmism. We know the IPCC climate science and it’s projections for man-made climate change remain largely untested and based on impractical modelling.
In my experience the introduction of NABERS ratings in Australian buildings is testament to proven results being the best motivator, encouraging competition and hope. Since NABERS was introduced around 15 years ago, the improvement in Australian commercial building’s energy efficiency has accelerated faster than almost all western countries in the world, and our average standards are now world leading; from design, construction and commissioning, through to ongoing operation and management.
As we move towards 2050 and beyond to 2100, despite huge improvements to energy efficiency, and renewable generation, it seems likely the CO2 levels will continue their assent on a similar trajectory. This trajectory is supported by the best-case-scenario forecasts from majors energy companies and the international energy agencies.
Historically, the free market, not government policy, has provided the best lever for encouraging innovation as we react to the price signals of the time. It is therefore likely government policies based on untested IPCC projections are irresponsible and not in the country’s best interest, especially in a world so misaligned with respect to energy.
As a small global player, perhaps energy abundance in all forms should be the focus for a strong Australia.